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Showing posts from August, 2017

Prognosis Negative: Congress, The Fed, and Geopolitics

The markets continue to defy gravity. Nearly every day they've been reaching new highs. I'm concerned, and have been for a while. There's an awful lot of complacency permeating the market currently. I believe the day of reckoning is approaching, likely before August concludes, but probably no later than mid-September. I think a correction of 10% magnitude wouldn't be surprising, but I'm guessing more like 7-8%. Whatever the actual quantification, there will be an unraveling. Don't freak out - it's long overdue and should provide a nice selective buying opportunity.

There are several factors coming to the fore that I think alone or in combination could be the catalyst for a market decline. Let's examine a few of them briefly.

First, the market has been on a tear without any meaningful pullback. A big early part of that was Trump euphoria. The new administration made bold promises that many believed would help stimulate the economy. Those promises include…