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Showing posts from September, 2017

An Abundance of Caution

The markets have surprised me this morning with an early 1% upside advance. Despite continued saber-rattling from North Korea and devastating impacts from Hurricane Irma, the market is demonstrating impressive resilience. Just last Tuesday, the indices had declined to August 17th levels, recent low territory, and I really thought the long-awaited correction was beginning. Once again, the current Bull proves tenacious.

My outlook, however, remains similar. Overall, I think valuations are too high. We'll see if the market continues to discount the impact of North Korea rhetoric if further sanctions are adopted later this afternoon. North Korea aside, it's the unexpected event to fear most. The country has experienced two devastating hurricanes in less than one week, with another potentially looming. Economic disruption from these is inevitable, but I think the magnitude is currently being underestimated. Hurricane Harvey saw an immediate 10% rise in gasoline pump prices and with…

A Solemn Remembrance

It was a crisp, cloudless, blue sky morning, not unlike this morning. An incredibly beautiful day...until the unthinkable happened. Peaceful bliss was shattered irrevocably and the world changed in an instant. The innocent loss of life was staggering, completely unfathomable. It's hard to believe that 16 years have elapsed since that horrible day. My blogs usually "go dark" on September 11th, but not today. Never Forget. Today, I choose to remember...and to briefly share a few memories.

If you're old enough, you remember exactly where you were when the Towers came down. I was at work, getting prepared for another day of trading. It was Tuesday. The North Tower was struck at 8:46 AM. It seemed like a tragic accident. When the South Tower was struck shortly thereafter at 9:03 AM, it became alarmingly clear we were under attack. Needless to say, the markets didn't open and wouldn't until the following Monday.

So many of us lost dear friends or family that day. T…