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Showing posts from February, 2018

Predictions and Reality

Let's get right to it...my outlook prediction back in September 2017 has proven to be totally wrong! My abundance of caution around that DOW 22,000 level was overrun in a stampede not seen in quite a while, reaching all the way to 26,000 with nary a pause. Simply incredible. And yes, I missed it. Do I feel foolish? How could I not. My only consolation was that the stocks I typically use as my proxies, like steel and GE, didn't enjoy the ride. So, I missed it and I didn't. I definitely exited some tech names like AAPL, CSCO, and TSLA too early though.

Am I changing gears yet? Nope. The sheer ferocity of the advance reminded me too much of the dot-com bubble. Remember that one? Easy money in anything with a website. Until the bottom fell out. I'm not making the argument the dynamic is the same, just that as a trader, the markets felt scary to me in the same way. The cryptocurrency market is definitely the same dynamic though. At any rate, I'm still optimistic but als…